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Every VC investor's return from the 2026 AI chip IPO
Built by Trace Cohen · Free to use · Data refreshed regularly · Reach out at t@nyvp.com
Nine years from Series A to IPO. Every funding round's MOIC, IRR, and post-lockup scenarios — the complete picture of who made what on one of AI's biggest debuts.
| Round | Entry Price | MOIC (Day 1) | IRR Category | Notable Investors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Series A | $0.85 | 366x | >100%/yr | Benchmark, Foundation Capital |
| Series B | ~$2–4 | ~80–150x | >100%/yr | Foundation Capital, others |
| Series C | ~$5–10 | ~30–60x | >100%/yr | Various |
| Series D/E | ~$15–30 | ~10–20x | 50–100%/yr | Tiger Global, Eclipse Ventures |
| Series F/G | ~$50–100 | ~3–6x | 50–100%/yr | Eclipse Ventures ($146.5M) |
| Late Stage | ~$120–150 | ~2–2.5x | <50%/yr | Crossover / growth funds |
| Scenario | Share Price | vs. Day 1 | Series A MOIC | Late-Stage MOIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish (–50%) | ~$155 | –50% | ~183x | ~1.1x |
| Flat | $311 | 0% | 366x | ~2.1x |
| Bullish (+50%) | ~$467 | +50% | ~550x | ~3.1x |
Cerebras Systems priced its 2026 IPO at $185 per share. On day one, shares closed at $311, a 68% pop from the offer price. The strong debut reflected AI hardware demand and Cerebras' position as a serious rival to Nvidia's GPU dominance in AI training workloads.
Series A investors — primarily Benchmark and Foundation Capital — achieved the highest returns, with MOICs around 366x based on a ~$0.85 entry price against a $311 day-one close. Eclipse Ventures had the largest single-fund dollar return, having invested $146.5M in later rounds for a 17x+ return, translating to roughly $2.5B+ in proceeds.
Cerebras Systems builds wafer-scale AI chips — the CS-3 chip is the size of an entire silicon wafer, giving it roughly 4x the compute density of Nvidia's H100 for certain large-model training tasks. The company went public after nine years of private funding to provide liquidity for investors and fund continued chip development and manufacturing scale-up.
Cerebras' day-one pop of 68% puts it among the strongest AI hardware IPOs, comparable to Astera Labs (+72% day one in 2024) and above CoreWeave's more muted debut. Unlike CoreWeave, which relies on Nvidia GPUs, Cerebras is vertically integrated with its own silicon — a higher-risk, higher-reward profile that the market rewarded with a significant premium.
The 6-month lockup expiry is the key risk event. Early investors holding 366x+ returns face strong incentive to sell, which can create significant supply overhang. Historical data shows AI chip and infrastructure names drop 20–40% on average at lockup expiry as VC funds distribute shares to LPs who then sell. The lockup scenario tool models bearish (–50%), flat, and bullish (+50%) outcomes to help investors plan accordingly.